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Here, you may set the time frame to be visible in the graphs.
Here, you may set the time frame to be visible in the graphs.
The forecast from the beginning of the last week is in green, the current forecast for the next 7 days is in yellow. The forecast is based on a simple model. It just shows how the cases should look like if the growth would be the same as in the last week.
The reproduction number is estimated in five ways. It is estimated according to the number of daily new cases, according to the number of daily new hospitalizations, according to the number of new severe hospitalizations, according to the death cases and according to first symptoms of the cases. The reproudction number estimated according to the number of daily new hospitalizations should be most likely more accurate than R estimated according to the daily new cases, but it should be delayed a couple of days. Some of the curves needs to be explicitely enabled in the graph.
On Jan, 21st, 2021 the czech ministry of health stopped to publish the number of patients released from hospitalization. This was a necessary input for the R number estimation according to the number of daily new hospitalizations. The estimation itself was rewritten so that it now uses the non-public data of the czech ministry of health, but it may be expcted, that this approach will have some limitations. Mainly it should be expected, that the R of last few published days will be lower than it should be. It is given by the fact, that the R is now calculated according to the data of hospitalized patients, which tends to be delayed a couple of days behind the reality. It will be an interesting observation, how many days it will last until the R estimation will become stable.
Anyway, even the original R by hospitalizations estimation is still available (also needs to be explicitely enabled). In the original estimation it may be observed, that at the begining of September there are strange peaks, which were not present before. It means, that the czech ministry of helath needed to change some past data, which caused the curves to scatter. From the data stored on this site it cannot be determined, which data were exactly changed and when. Most probably the reason for stopping publishing the number of patients released from hospitalization is exactly the same, why the historical data were changed.
This graph shows the current number of hospitalized patients and number of serious hospitalized patients compared to the daily new cases (averaged over a week). The graph also newly contains the forecasts for the number of hospitalized patients.
This graph shows the daily new hospitalized cases. It seems that while some of the hospitalizations are recoreded quite soon, other are recorded after a couple of days. The numbers of hospitalizations therefore stabilize a couple of days backwards. (We will see how much days will be necessary.)
This estimate of the real cases is not in fact the real cases estimate, but it tries to rescale the graph according to the testing quality, which was achieved in summer 2020, when the number of cases was pretty low and therefore the health authority had the best results in tracking positive cases. Of course even then, much cases was not discovered by the health authority so the real number of cases would be that times bigger. This graph just tries to eliminate the impact of in time variable quality of the testing process. The real number of cases is therefore much more an constant multiple of this curve than the curve of tested cases.
This graphs shows the daily average of all deaths in the Czech Republic in the years 2011 - 2020. Data are delayed quite a lot behind the reality. The data may be viewed as sequential (the years are put one after another) or as parallel (all years are drawn in the same year). In the graph "boundaries" there are boundaries for the period of 2011 - 2019, the average for the same period and the curve of the year 2020. The death rate is recounted from weekly values to average daily values.
This graph shows three curves: the over-mortality above the average (cz_overmortality_avg), the over-mortality above the maximum in the period of the year (cz_overmortality_max) and the official number of Covid-19 daily death cases. The over-mortality is expressed as a daily average for the given month or as a weekly value.
